I made a pie

I took a gander at Obama's proposed budget and came up with a pie chart for it:

For the sake of simplifying the pie chart, I took about ten departments with smaller budgets related to the workings of government and lumped them into "Internal Affairs". Anything with a significant budget though was left with it's own label.

I simplified things further with a second pie chart that lumps all military spending together, with another segment for Health Care/Social Security:

I was surprised at how massive Welfare ends up being compared to the rest of the budget. Our "Defense" spending is also huge. Without the wars added in though, it's actually less than either Health Care or Social Security. Service members are getting a lot of benefits through the VA program, a much greater dollar for dollar proportion of welfare services than the rest of the population.

I haven't really had a chance to consider this very carefully, but the massive cost of Health Care and Social Security is more than a little disheartening. Is this the baseline from which we can expect higher costs in the future? Or have we reached some theoretical peak in that kind of spending? Because otherwise, it's very easy to see how these welfare programs could eat up the entire country's budget.

New Circle running route

My biggest problem with running on a treadmill was that I never got anywhere. That's why I always rode my bike in Japan, because in addition to being great exercise, it was also a fun and environmentally friendly way of getting around the rural area I lived in.

Now that I'm back in the US, I once again have a car and the distances are so much greater that cycling to work is out of the question. Luckily there are great running routes to be had, with spectacular views of the Bay Area to boot.

I've been wearing the five fingers shoes... Not gonna win any fashion contests, and I can already hear all my friends making off-handed remarks, but I really feel light on my feet during the run. It's a totally different feeling than my previous experiences with running shoes, where my knees have felt the brunt of the pain.

I've been warming up the past couple of weeks on smaller 2-4 mile circle routes, but I had visions of something bigger:

Everything started out fine, but by the time I had reached Cipriani in Belmont, the padding under the balls of my feet were KILLING. I've got blisters all over the padding there. By Cipriani, I could only run in short bursts because I'd get this awful pain caused by the blisters rubbing against the "shoe". I've got work tonight, so hopefully my dainty feet won't be suffering too badly with socks and shoes.

At least the five finger contraptions don't make my feet stinky, which I can't say for the Pumas I wear to work.

Economic conundrum

I think the real reason why the Left and Right in this country can't get along is that they aren't even talking about the same Universe.

Progressive models point out our wars and Federal tax cuts when describing the explosive growth of debt in our country since the turn of the century.

Then there is the Tea Party. I'll be honset, I like their Pie Chart. I'll always take a pie chart over a bunch of words on the screen or shaky looking two-dimensional charts. Their breakdown therefore, looks a lot more complete. But I'm left with a lot of questions. First, they don't even list the wars, they just lump it into Defense. Defense doesn't even look like all that much money when put into perspective of the whole budget. Really though, that's not as big an issue as the other seemingly non-existent data....

Where did the tax cuts go?? Wasn't that a massive contributor to our debt?? I don't even see tax cuts? Did it get put into pensions?? Welfare?? What are the Progressives talking about with all the tax cut contribution to debt?? Based on their charts, it's the single largest contributor by far, but I don't even see it listed in the budget pie chart the Tea Party provides. Their website doesn't even mention a tax cut.

Why doesn't the Federal Government provide their own pie chart??

Standard & Poor, the most evil of them all?

Standard & Poor's rating scales are watched closely by financial experts all over the world. Investors base their decisions on the ratings. That's why today's announcement of Greece's poor credit rating could further exacerbate their debt crisis. It's a statement that certainly isn't neecessary. Everyone already knows Greece is in financial poopoo. So why did S&P need to remind the entire world that Greek debt is a bad thing to be holding onto?

I think far more important for all of us to keep in mind, is just how good S&P's credit ratings ACTUALLY are. Just three years ago, Standard & Poor had given triple-A ratings to Mortgage Backed Securities that were doomed to fail.  How far can we really trust these ratings agencies? Not at all. Hell, even a bum on the street can give the kind of information that S&P provides. (I would like to point out that the S&P website has completely revised their data on the Subprime market, now listing massive "projected" losses for securities issued during the heydey of stupid bond investments, also, none of the information that shows or admits to any errors on their part is listed)

Meanwhile, the major headlines in US news are the Republican candidate debates, which are taking place more than a half a year before the Republican party even needs to begin primary voting procedures. Also, Obama is visiting Puerto Rico. Our country needs to start reevaluating what's truly valuable. Who is going to be facing up against Obama in the upcoming election? Or how many billions do the New York financial markets continue to siphon from the American people?

The only thing I'm wondering is, HOW DO WE HELP TO STOP ALL OF THIS UNREGULATED MADNESS!!?!?!?!?

(notice that the person who writes in FAVOR of regulation is the Cheif Economist of CitiGroup!!)

Poisson Distributes his madness unto me!

I've been looking into studies of marriage rates in interesting circumstances. I was originally hoping to investigate the coming Chinese marriage experiment, which has just begun as a result of the law set almost three decades ago which only allowed a single child to each household. In the end, I found a study about French marriage rates following WWI, and another about marriage rates immediately following the aforementioned law's ratification.

There were a few mathematical terms I had never heard of, including the Poisson Distribution that I'm currently geeking out over. What a nifty little statistical device! And I think I'm completely failing to apply it properly.

Obama is the only probable candidate?

All this talk of the debt ceiling is starting to get serious! Mitt Romney's announcement of his candidacy was on the exact day that Moody's threatened to lower the US's credit rating if the debt ceiling is not raised. Romney says that Obama is responsible for rising unemployment levels, higher gas prices, and the higher national debt. Woops! Let's remember that these are all problems that started in Bush II's presidency. Realistically though, unless a specific policy can be identified as the sole culprit for a crisis, how can any blame be assigned? Let's look at Bush II as an example.

During Bush II's reign two wars were started, our debt skyrocketted, and he captained the ship when the economy tanked. Now I am not blaming Bush II for all of these things. He can't be held accountable for the entire state of the economy, that's like getting mad at your Captain when a bad storm hits and the waves are bad... he didn't make the storm! The housing bubble and lack of regulation on Wall Street that allowed for the 2008 financial crisis were ongoing problems that spanned multiple presidencies.

Starting yet another doublet of unending American Imperial wars on the other hand, is Bush's fault and a huge burden on our nation's budget. That's part of the reason why Obama inherited debt of such mind-blowing proportions. That and a massive tax break (also Bush's fault, and still contributing to our debt). In fact, it's the Republican party with their support for both policies that has resulted in the largest debt increase in US history. Even on this issue of debt though, it's important to remember that there has been an ongoing debt crisis in this country that was not being properly considered until the financial crisis forced us to consider debt very seriously.

Now we turn to Obama, who is being blamed by Republicans for skyrocketing debt, a calamity-to-be that really only became a huge issue after Republicans messed everything up during their last presidency. I am proud of our current president for his political savvy and gamesmanship. When he had a Democratic congress to support progressive policies, he made sure to pass the legislation that represented the goals of plurality and social welfare. Now that the conservatives are back in town, Obama's become more moderate by catering to Republican policy, even when it meant short-term increases to national debt. Obama has also made every effort to halt partisan bickering by bringing the major rabble-rousers to the negotiating table. He's showing a willingness to compromise for the good of the country.

Even in our foreign policy, I am proud to have Obama as our #1. Outside a select circle of elite pissants, I don't think there is a soul on this earth who can say with certainty what we are doing in either Iraq or Afghanistan. In the face of so much uncertainty, Obama's approach to these wars has been transparent and realistic. He's not about to desert all the hard work that our soldiers have already put into Iraq. But he's made it clear that the pull-out has to happen at some point, and that now is as good a time as any.

The region centering around Afghanistan and it's unending war is the only area where I feel that the Obama administration might be dragging their feet. America's position there seems to be deteriorating, with our only "ally" in the region being a hot-bed of conflict and political turmoil. I think American foreign policy of the past few years is partly to blame for Pakistan's current woes. We've bribed the country into lending us military support, but we haven't been demanding any accountability on their part, which has led to a terrorized civilian population. Recent Pakistani outrage at our covert assassination of Osama Bin-Laden is understandable, because it's indicative of how little we trust and respect Pakistan. Maybe Obama could have notified Pakistan's intelligence service of the strike before it was happening (in the hours immediately before the raid so that, if there was a spy for Osama, there wouldn't be much time to get the word out). More than that single decision though, US-Pakistan relations have become strained over the course of this long war. .

Of course, Obama's performance in political issues abroad hasn't even been criticized by Republican presidential candidates. The frontrunners are full of specious statements lamenting our economic woes under Obama, without ever presenting their own concrete agenda (and ignoring all I've discussed above). The outliers are full of big ideas with more specifics than their opponents, but the policy they recommend would be devastating to our economy (does Ron Paul live in a vacuum? if so, it's definitely an Oreck.. one built in the 18th century where the kind of society he espouses might still be possible). Republicans talk a lot about getting down to brass tax, but I think it's pretty clear that Obama and his administration have actually been all about that.